For what it's worth, this is muh reading of mineral extraction deal:
- the US gets 50 per cent of future profits from underexploited reserves in the Ukraine, which will presumably be sold off to international companies (ie US and perhaps Russian entities, though I fully share your confusion about what the term 'US company' means these days);
- the Ukraine has to set up a ‘development fund’ with the remaining profits; this maybe implies that profits will have to be tipped back into purchasing machinery etc, which might then be leased to the the very US/Russian companies that have benefited from privatisation (note that Putler is now re-framing Russia-America relationship as a 'partnership': https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/24/putin-backs-trumps-proposal-to-halve-defense-spending-a88153);
- as a backhanded sop to Russia (ie an insult), reserves located in the Donbas are included in the deal with Zelenskiiiiyyyy, these being the resources that will probably be privatised to the benefit of Russian companies, American companies getting reserves elsewhere within Ukrainian borders as they stand at time of armistice;
- in the first place, the Ukraine gets in return no security guarantees from Trump, BUT;
- In order to secure US mining rights, Trump will eventually 'concede' stationing of US 'peacekeepers' on Ukrainian territory (maybe including the Donbas and other Russian areas); this will achieve by other means the American geopolitical aim of a foothold in Ukraine, without Ukrainian membership of NATO;
- Russia, as well as the Ukraine, is thus effectively reduced to complete diplomatic and geopolitical subordination to the US.
This might be Trump’s funniest and cleverest manoeuvre yet. At a single stroke he might effect—with a probable full return (and then some) of US spending on arming the Ukraine over the last three years—peace without retreat and massive economic/geopolitical expansion without war. It also looks like PUNISHED EU will receive little return on its supposedly ‘guaranteed’ military aid.
I think Niccolo Soldo had it about right a couple of years ago: US big winner, Russia little winner, Ukraine & EU BIG LOSERS (or something like that).
I had no idea about the inside baseball when it comes to the U.S. government and the NGO complex. Great podcast! I really enjoyed it. When your NGO friend finally gets that position that he wants, for whatever reason, the scene from Ted when he gets the grocery job pops into my head. I bet it will have that kind of dynamic. Something that might explain the weird non-disclosures, in a book I highly recommend. Aberration the Heartland of the Real: The Secret Lives of Timothy McVeigh by Wendy S. Painting is the intelligence community’s approach to leaks.
The book is fascinating for one reason above all: when conducting intelligence operations, the biggest problem is leaks. There’s a formula for this—the square root of the number of people who need to know a secret equals the number of leakers you’ll have. On top of that, intelligence work tends to attract individuals with Cluster B and other personality traits that make them more prone to disclosing sensitive information. You can only keep so much control over these people, and a long enough timeline, even good counterintelligence efforts start to slip.
What Aberration in the Heartland of the Real describes is a program known as Mirage Men—a brilliant solution to the leaker problem. The idea is to use operatives who spread a mix of half-truths and disinformation to cranks and conspiracy theorists. This creates an environment where, if a real government insider wants to leak, their credibility is immediately undermined. Anyone they try to talk to is already aware of the program and unlikely to take them seriously. Meanwhile, the people most predisposed to believe and spread such information are also aware of Mirage Men, making them more skeptical.
In effect, this creates the perfect system—the manifestation of "everyone’s a fed"—where genuine leaks become indistinguishable from controlled disinformation. So when bizarre disclosures happen, the question is: are they Mirage Men, or are they real leakers? If we can’t tell, that just means the program is working exactly as intended.
Very interesting confluence on US side of Ellis Islander deli dealmaker (Trump being an honorary Jew) and Appalachian obsession with RESPECT! All that was missing for perfect pre Hart-Celler American triangulation was a based negro in the room to DISRESPECT Zelenskiiiiiyyyyyy's momma. Prissy east coast Anglo founding stock alienated by the unbearable vulgarity of it all but most of them vote Democrat anyway.
For what it's worth, this is muh reading of mineral extraction deal:
- the US gets 50 per cent of future profits from underexploited reserves in the Ukraine, which will presumably be sold off to international companies (ie US and perhaps Russian entities, though I fully share your confusion about what the term 'US company' means these days);
- the Ukraine has to set up a ‘development fund’ with the remaining profits; this maybe implies that profits will have to be tipped back into purchasing machinery etc, which might then be leased to the the very US/Russian companies that have benefited from privatisation (note that Putler is now re-framing Russia-America relationship as a 'partnership': https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/24/putin-backs-trumps-proposal-to-halve-defense-spending-a88153);
- as a backhanded sop to Russia (ie an insult), reserves located in the Donbas are included in the deal with Zelenskiiiiyyyy, these being the resources that will probably be privatised to the benefit of Russian companies, American companies getting reserves elsewhere within Ukrainian borders as they stand at time of armistice;
- in the first place, the Ukraine gets in return no security guarantees from Trump, BUT;
- In order to secure US mining rights, Trump will eventually 'concede' stationing of US 'peacekeepers' on Ukrainian territory (maybe including the Donbas and other Russian areas); this will achieve by other means the American geopolitical aim of a foothold in Ukraine, without Ukrainian membership of NATO;
- Russia, as well as the Ukraine, is thus effectively reduced to complete diplomatic and geopolitical subordination to the US.
This might be Trump’s funniest and cleverest manoeuvre yet. At a single stroke he might effect—with a probable full return (and then some) of US spending on arming the Ukraine over the last three years—peace without retreat and massive economic/geopolitical expansion without war. It also looks like PUNISHED EU will receive little return on its supposedly ‘guaranteed’ military aid.
I think Niccolo Soldo had it about right a couple of years ago: US big winner, Russia little winner, Ukraine & EU BIG LOSERS (or something like that).
Good ep. Degreestudies was great.
I had no idea about the inside baseball when it comes to the U.S. government and the NGO complex. Great podcast! I really enjoyed it. When your NGO friend finally gets that position that he wants, for whatever reason, the scene from Ted when he gets the grocery job pops into my head. I bet it will have that kind of dynamic. Something that might explain the weird non-disclosures, in a book I highly recommend. Aberration the Heartland of the Real: The Secret Lives of Timothy McVeigh by Wendy S. Painting is the intelligence community’s approach to leaks.
The book is fascinating for one reason above all: when conducting intelligence operations, the biggest problem is leaks. There’s a formula for this—the square root of the number of people who need to know a secret equals the number of leakers you’ll have. On top of that, intelligence work tends to attract individuals with Cluster B and other personality traits that make them more prone to disclosing sensitive information. You can only keep so much control over these people, and a long enough timeline, even good counterintelligence efforts start to slip.
What Aberration in the Heartland of the Real describes is a program known as Mirage Men—a brilliant solution to the leaker problem. The idea is to use operatives who spread a mix of half-truths and disinformation to cranks and conspiracy theorists. This creates an environment where, if a real government insider wants to leak, their credibility is immediately undermined. Anyone they try to talk to is already aware of the program and unlikely to take them seriously. Meanwhile, the people most predisposed to believe and spread such information are also aware of Mirage Men, making them more skeptical.
In effect, this creates the perfect system—the manifestation of "everyone’s a fed"—where genuine leaks become indistinguishable from controlled disinformation. So when bizarre disclosures happen, the question is: are they Mirage Men, or are they real leakers? If we can’t tell, that just means the program is working exactly as intended.
Very interesting confluence on US side of Ellis Islander deli dealmaker (Trump being an honorary Jew) and Appalachian obsession with RESPECT! All that was missing for perfect pre Hart-Celler American triangulation was a based negro in the room to DISRESPECT Zelenskiiiiiyyyyyy's momma. Prissy east coast Anglo founding stock alienated by the unbearable vulgarity of it all but most of them vote Democrat anyway.